Tradivex Calculators
Trading Expectancy & Profit Factor Calculator
Estimate expectancy, profit factor, break-even win rate, and average R from your strategy assumptions.
Expectancy per trade
0.300 R
Estimated total expectancy
30.00 R
Profit factor
1.636
Break-even win rate
35.00%
How this calculator works
Practical guide and assumptions
Expectancy estimates the average result per trade from a strategy's win rate, average win, and average loss. Profit factor compares gross winning results with gross losing results.
Formula and method
Expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Profit factor = gross profit ÷ gross loss. Use results from a sufficiently representative sample and subtract realistic costs before drawing conclusions.
Before using the result
- Keep the sample and measurement period consistent.
- Separate gross results from net results after fees and slippage.
- Avoid treating a small backtest or recent winning streak as proof of future performance.
Frequently asked questions
Is positive expectancy a guarantee of profit?
No. Expectancy is an estimate based on assumptions or historical results. Future results can differ because of market regimes, sample error, execution, and changing behaviour.
What does a profit factor below 1 mean?
It means gross losses exceed gross profits for the inputs or sample used. It does not explain why the result occurred or whether costs were included.