Tradivex Calculators
Options Probability of Profit Calculator
Estimate options probability of profit and expected value from price, strike, volatility, and time assumptions.
Break-even price
105.00
Estimated probability of profit
14.79%
Estimated probability of loss
85.21%
Simple expected value
-352.10
How this calculator works
Practical guide and assumptions
This calculator estimates probability of profit using a simplified risk-neutral model from price, strike, implied volatility, time, rates, and premium assumptions.
Formula and method
The estimate uses a Black–Scholes-style distribution for a single option leg and compares the assumed terminal price distribution with the entered break-even. Real-world outcomes can differ because volatility is not constant and options have spreads, skew, early exercise, assignment, and discrete events.
Before using the result
- Use implied volatility for the relevant expiry and strike when available.
- Check contract multiplier, premium, commissions, and bid/ask spread.
- Treat probability as a model output, not a prediction or recommendation.
Frequently asked questions
Is probability of profit the same as probability of finishing in the money?
No. Probability of profit depends on the position's break-even after premium and costs. Finishing in the money only compares the underlying with the strike.
Why can the estimate differ from an options platform?
Platforms may use different volatility surfaces, rates, dividends, distributions, contract details, or definitions of probability.